The Final Eight System Explained



In 2000 The AFL Commission reviewed the AFL Finals System which involved months of research and consideration by the league's administration, led by former Football Operations Manager Ian Collins. Under the system to be now used, the top four teams in the final eight will all be guaranteed a double chance in the first week of the finals and will need to win three matches to claim the premiership.

The top two teams will have home state advantage at the determined AFL finals venue. Teams finishing in positions five to eight will not have a double-chance and will each be required to win four successive sudden-death matches to claim the premiership. Teams five and six will have home state advantage in the first week only of finals.

The Commission wished to retain the basic parameters of eight teams competing in a finals series over four weeks. The number of finals will remain at nine games with four matches in the first week, two in the second week, two in the third week and culminating in the Grand Final in week four.

The AFL had chosen to examine the finals system because the former McIntyre Final Eight system had proven difficult to understand for many supporters and had also revealed some inequities. The McIntyre Final Eight System rewarded teams that won during the finals but it was inequitable in that a highly-placed team could win many more matches over the Home and Away Season and then be immediately put into a difficult away finals match because of one loss in the opening week of the finals. For example, it was possible for the third and fourth-placed teams to be eliminated in week one of the finals.

Under the new system, teams which are very successful over the course of the season and finish in the top four will be rewarded with an automatic double chance and will have some protection of their position into the second week of the finals, by virtue of a 'home game', in recognition of a season's success.

The AFL had welcomed and received numerous submissions from across the football public in regard to the finals system, covering mathematical departments, students, actuaries, interested supporters, media and club personnel.

An overwhelming majority of the 16 AFL clubs supported a change to the system. Most had followed a basic system where the eight finalists were initially paired into two groups of four in the opening week of the finals. The new system did not allow for 'dead' finals matches and ensured that the team's fate in the finals was entirely dependent on its own performance alone.

All matches under this system will be 'live' games and will not have to play matches in a particular order as happened under the McIntyre system. Teams will not benefit more or less depending on the results of other matches, as was particularly the case in the first week of the finals under the previous system.

It is expected the matches to be much more competitive because, rather than the teams at the top of the eight meeting the teams at the bottom of the eight, they will be lining up as 1 v 4, 2 v 3, 5 v 8, and 6 v 7. The mathematical probabilities of each team winning the premiership, exclusive of home state advantage, were much more even under the new system.

1999 System 2000 System
First 18.75% 18.75%
Second 18.75% 18.75%
Third 15.625% 18.75%
Fourth 12.5% 18.75%
Fifth 12.5% 6.25%
Sixth 9.375% 6.25%
Seventh 6.25% 6.25%
Eighth 6.25% 6.25%



The identified advantages of the new system are:

1. Simple and readily understood.
2. Provides top four teams with a guaranteed double chance.
3. Matches drawn from each group may be closer matches.
4. All games are live and team's fate not dependant on other matches.
5. Top two teams have home advantage.
6. Teams five and six have home advantage in week one of finals.




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